The Safe Bet

In his unfinished and posthumously published Pensées, 17th century French philosopher, inventor, mathematician, theologian, writer, physicist and all-around smart guy Blaise Pascal wrote out what has since become known as "Pascal's Gambit" or "Pascal's Wager."

Pascal presents the gambit as an argument not for or against the actual existence of God Himself, but towards faith. Pascal argues that reason cannot be trusted to determine the truth of an idea -the existence or non-existence of God - that is within a realm completely separate from reason by its very nature.

"God is, or He is not." But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions.

So it's down to a coin toss, and we have to make a bet on where the coin will land. Either it's heads and God is real (specifically, the God of the Bible), or tails and He's not. And the thing is, you can't not bet. Like Canadian progressive rock power trio Rush says, "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice." Pascal points out that we are all each of us already living out our choice on where the coin will fall.

And here's where I think things get particularly awesome.

Pascal says that if the God of the Bible is real and we live our lives like we believe it, then we stand to win an infinite gain - Heaven.

If God is real and we live like He's not, we stand to lose an infinite loss - Hell, the second death, darkness, weeping and gnashing of teeth, etc...

If God isn't real and we live like it, well, we'll be wrong in the end, but if we're actually living like God is real, then we're living lives dedicated to being people filled with love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control... and what's bad about being that kind of person? Isn't that what we wish everybody else would be like? Aren't those exactly the kinds of words we all want people to use when they're describing us at our funeral? So it's still to your gain to live as though God is real, even if He's not, because in the end, it just makes you a nice and well-loved person.

And then, of course, there's the fourth possibility - God's not real, and you don't live like it anyway. Well, if that's true, you live however you want and then you die. The end. The gain here was that you got to do what you wanted.

But of the four possibilities, the safest bet is to live as though God is real, simply because the amount you stand to lose (your life, sacrificed in service to God) is completely worth the amount you could potentially win (infinite bliss). The only way you can really lose is if God's real and you don't live like it. That's the only option in which there is an actual BAD THING that happens to you in the end. So just from a probabilities standpoint, it makes more sense to live your life as though there is a God, because even if there isn't, things work out pretty well for you anyway.

(What I'm presenting here is a very, very, very simplified version of Pascal's original writings, but it still covers the basic thrust of the idea.)

I used to play a whole lot of poker when I was in college. I don't want to sound arrogant, but truth be told, I was pretty good. I didn't always win, but I won more often than I lost. With the guys I played with, we only played for five bucks each - small enough that you're not really gonna miss it if you lose, but big enough that if you win a game with 6 guys, it's 30 bucks in your pocket.

One of the guys I played with - I'll call him Keith, since that's his name - had this particular betting style that always messed with my head. Once the cards were dealt out and everybody had made their piddling little 25-cent bets and 50-cent raises, Keith would come out swinging with three dollars (out of an initial five!) on top.

It was always, always, always the last thing you expected him to do, even though he'd done it countless times before. It was always, always, always an impossible situation to react to, as well, because you never knew if he was putting on a stone-cold bluff or if he actually had pretty good cards.

I seemed to have the exactly worst possible luck in those hands because I would invariably fold my pocket 10s when Keith was only holding a 4 and a 7, or I'd wind up calling with two pair, Jacks and nines, and then look up to see Keith's full house, Aces over Jacks, and... uhhh... well, there went all of my money.

Now, that bet didn't always work for Keith. In poker, there is nothing that always works. But when it did work... Yeah, it paid off really well for him. Part of the reason that it ever worked out for him was that he was the only guy at the table willing to make such an insane bet in the first place. Some of us (me) were dumb enough to call, and occasionally - seldom is actually a better word here - it would work out, but most of the time, the boldness of the bet itself was enough to scare everybody else out, leaving Keith to rake in the chips.

No matter what you or I choose to believe about God, morality, faith, Heaven, Hell, or anything else, there is risk involved. The risk is that we might be wrong. It doesn't matter what you believe - it might be wrong. Whether you believe God is real or not, you might be wrong. It's definitely a possibility.

But that's where faith comes in, isn't it? It is our faith that assures us that God is real, that the Bible is an accurate relaying of His message to us, and that our sins have been forgiven because of the sacrifice of Jesus. Remember the words of Christ to the apostle Thomas: "Because you have seen me, you have believed; blessed are those who have not seen and yet have believed." (John 20:29) We who call ourselves Christian are definitely blessed because we are in a relationship with God that is not based on sight, but on faith - on a trust in the existence not seen by human eyes or made with human hands, but above nature, supernatural, divine... something distinctly "other" from everything else in this world.

But are we really doing enough to say that we're living by faith?

Or have we allowed our faith in God to become more like an insurance policy - something that we don't really ever think about, and hope we don't ever have to deal with, but we keep paying the absolute minimum just in case things go wrong?

"Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moths and vermin destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moths and vermin do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.

“The eye is the lamp of the body. If your eyes are healthy, your whole body will be full of light. But if your eyes are unhealthy, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light within you is darkness, how great is that darkness!

“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.

“Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothes? Look at the birds of the air; they do not sow or reap or store away in barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more valuable than they? Can any one of you by worrying add a single hour to your life?

“And why do you worry about clothes? See how the flowers of the field grow. They do not labor or spin. Yet I tell you that not even Solomon in all his splendor was dressed like one of these. If that is how God clothes the grass of the field, which is here today and tomorrow is thrown into the fire, will He not much more clothe you — you of little faith? So do not worry, saying, ‘What shall we eat?’ or ‘What shall we drink?’ or ‘What shall we wear?’ For the pagans run after all these things, and your heavenly Father knows that you need them. But seek first His Kingdom and His Righteousness, and all these things will be given to you as well. Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.

Matthew 6:19-34, emphasis added

Did you notice how Jesus pretty blatantly said we're not supposed to worry about money? Or clothes? Or food? Or tomorrow?

So what if we actually started doing that?

What if we actually started focusing on the things Jesus told us to focus on - His Kingdom and His Righteousness - and actually had the faith that God would provide the rest?

What would that look like? Would it look crazy? Well, Paul says yes.

For the message of the cross is foolishness to those who are perishing, but to us who are being saved it is the power of God. For it is written:

“I will destroy the wisdom of the wise;

the intelligence of the intelligent I will frustrate.”

Where is the wise person? Where is the teacher of the law? Where is the philosopher of this age? Has not God made foolish the wisdom of the world? For since in the wisdom of God the world through its wisdom did not know him, God was pleased through the foolishness of what was preached to save those who believe. Jews demand signs and Greeks look for wisdom, but we preach Christ crucified: a stumbling block to Jews and foolishness to Gentiles, but to those whom God has called, both Jews and Greeks, Christ the power of God and the wisdom of God. For the foolishness of God is wiser than human wisdom, and the weakness of God is stronger than human strength.

Brothers and sisters, think of what you were when you were called. Not many of you were wise by human standards; not many were influential; not many were of noble birth. But God chose the foolish things of the world to shame the wise; God chose the weak things of the world to shame the strong. God chose the lowly things of this world and the despised things—and the things that are not—to nullify the things that are, so that no one may boast before him. It is because of him that you are in Christ Jesus, who has become for us wisdom from God—that is, our righteousness, holiness and redemption. Therefore, as it is written: “Let the one who boasts boast in the Lord.”

I Corinthians 1:18-31

"Has God not made foolish the wisdom of the world?" Isn't following after what the world says is the right way to live out your life kind of dumb once you believe in God? Isn't the whole point of this God thing that we listen to God instead of... well, anything that isn't God?

What's the point of believing in God if we're not going to live like the God we believe in is actually going to do anything for us?

If we believe in God, wouldn't that mean we believe what He says?

Isn't that the whole point of faith in the first place?

Now when Jesus returned, a crowd welcomed him, for they were all expecting him. Then a man named Jairus, a synagogue leader, came and fell at Jesus’ feet, pleading with him to come to his house because his only daughter, a girl of about twelve, was dying.

As Jesus was on his way, the crowds almost crushed him. And a woman was there who had been subject to bleeding for twelve years, but no one could heal her. She came up behind him and touched the edge of his cloak, and immediately her bleeding stopped.

“Who touched me?” Jesus asked.

When they all denied it, Peter said, “Master, the people are crowding and pressing against you.”

But Jesus said, “Someone touched me; I know that power has gone out from me.”

Then the woman, seeing that she could not go unnoticed, came trembling and fell at his feet. In the presence of all the people, she told why she had touched him and how she had been instantly healed. Then he said to her, “Daughter, your faith has healed you. Go in peace.”

While Jesus was still speaking, someone came from the house of Jairus, the synagogue leader. “Your daughter is dead,” he said. “Don’t bother the teacher anymore.”

Hearing this, Jesus said to Jairus, “Don’t be afraid; just believe, and she will be healed.”

When he arrived at the house of Jairus, he did not let anyone go in with him except Peter, John and James, and the child’s father and mother. Meanwhile, all the people were wailing and mourning for her. “Stop wailing,” Jesus said. “She is not dead but asleep.”

They laughed at him, knowing that she was dead. But he took her by the hand and said, “My child, get up!” Her spirit returned, and at once she stood up. Then Jesus told them to give her something to eat. Her parents were astonished, but he ordered them not to tell anyone what had happened.

Luke 8:40-56, emphases added

What did Jesus say to the woman? What was it that healed her? Was it God? Was it Jesus Himself? Was it the woman touching His cloak?

Or was it her faith?

(In case you missed it, here it is again - "Then he said to her, “Daughter, your faith has healed you. Go in peace." Luke 8:48, the Bible, the Holy Inspired Word of God, the people-I-promise-I'm-not-making-this-up book.)

And what about Jairus? What was it He told Jairus?

I'm not gonna give you the answer this time, but I'll give you a GREAT BIG HINT: it's on this page already. It's just a few lines up. It's RIGHT AFTER Jesus tells the woman that her faith healed her...

"Just believe and she will be healed." Luke 8:50, once again, the Bible, the Holy Inspired Word of God, etc... (I know I said I wasn't going to tell you, but whatever, I'm trying to make a point here.)

And then there's...

When Jesus had entered Capernaum, a centurion came to him, asking for help. “Lord,” he said, “my servant lies at home paralyzed, suffering terribly.”

Jesus said to him, “Shall I come and heal him?”

The centurion replied, “Lord, I do not deserve to have you come under my roof. But just say the word, and my servant will be healed. For I myself am a man under authority, with soldiers under me. I tell this one, ‘Go,’ and he goes; and that one, ‘Come,’ and he comes. I say to my servant, ‘Do this,’ and he does it.”

When Jesus heard this, he was amazed and said to those following him, “Truly I tell you, I have not found anyone in Israel with such great faith. I say to you that many will come from the east and the west, and will take their places at the feast with Abraham, Isaac and Jacob in the kingdom of heaven. But the subjects of the kingdom will be thrown outside, into the darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.”

Then Jesus said to the centurion, “Go! Let it be done just as you believed it would.” And his servant was healed at that moment.

Matthew 8:5-13, emphasis added

But there's also...

When they came to the crowd, a man approached Jesus and knelt before Him. “Lord, have mercy on my son,” he said. “He has seizures and is suffering greatly. He often falls into the fire or into the water. I brought him to your disciples, but they could not heal him.”

“You unbelieving and perverse generation,” Jesus replied, “how long shall I stay with you? How long shall I put up with you? Bring the boy here to me.” Jesus rebuked the demon, and it came out of the boy, and he was healed at that moment.

Then the disciples came to Jesus in private and asked, “Why couldn’t we drive it out?”

He replied, “Because you have so little faith. Truly I tell you, if you have faith as small as a mustard seed, you can say to this mountain, ‘Move from here to there,’ and it will move. Nothing will be impossible for you.”

Matthew 17:14-20, emphasis added

Oh, and let's not forget...

When Jesus had finished these parables, He moved on from there. Coming to His hometown, He began teaching the people in their synagogue, and they were amazed. “Where did this man get this wisdom and these miraculous powers?” they asked. “Isn’t this the carpenter’s son? Isn’t His mother’s name Mary, and aren’t his brothers James, Joseph, Simon and Judas? Aren’t all his sisters with us? Where then did this man get all these things?” And they took offense at Him.

But Jesus said to them, “A prophet is not without honor except in his own town and in his own home.”

And He did not do many miracles there because of their lack of faith.

Matthew 13:53-58, emphasis added

Are you picking up on a trend here? Have you noticed that there's something of a correlation between how much faith someone has in Jesus and how much crazy awesome stuff He does in that person's life?

Do you think that we've been given any reason to believe that things work any differently today?

Did the rules change anytime in the last 1,970-ish years, or is God still in charge?

No matter what you say or think you believe, you are living out your life according to what you actually believe.

So take a look at yourself. Take a goooooood look. Are you living your life as a bet that the coin is gonna come up heads and that God - the God of the Bible, the Father of Jesus Christ, the Creator of the Universe - is real and that those who actually have the faith in Him to deny themselves and the "wisdom" of this world will have a part in Eternity with Him?

Or are you just making the "safe" bet and hoping everything works out, just in case He's actually there?

It takes a lot of faith to just give up on the world and let an invisible God who revealed Himself to people thousands of years ago take care of everything, and I realize that's a big step. Thing is, God realizes that, too, and that is exactly what He's asking us to do anyway.

God wants to be a part of your life in a huge, crazy, big, amazing, powerful, undeniable, holy, jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring, life-changing way.

But it's up to YOU to have the faith to let Him do it.